Jev Does Not Play Dice: inspect probabilities on known uncertainty

An independent experiment compares Jev's reported probabilities with known uncertainty on fair dice, coins and option sets. It also tests whether typed decisions preserve probabilities stated in forecast documents, publishing recorded outputs and offline analysis scripts.

Notes

On 400 hidden fair-die Choice trials, the recorded selected-option probability averaged 82.9%, while accuracy was 76/400, or 19.0%; the chance reference was 16.7%.

source-backed — Public repository, docs or live artifact. About this label

Destinations

Availability & demo checks

Report a problem →

Filed under

• #benchmark
• #evaluation
• #calibration
• #probability

In collections

• Benchmarks & independent tests →